Regulatory prediction calibration
When Conrad spots an early regulatory signal — a consultation, a speech, a discussion paper — it records a dated, probabilistic prediction here before the outcome is known. We publish every prediction and score ourselves with the Brier score once it resolves: 0 is perfect, 0.25 is what you'd get from a coin flip at 50%, 1 is maximally wrong. We do not remove predictions that turn out wrong.
ASIC will take formal supervisory or enforcement action against one or more financial services or credit licensees over inadequate AI governance controls.
Pending resolution
Singapore’s Personal Data Protection Commission will finalise guidance on synthetic data generation, including privacy safeguards for AI development and testing.
Pending resolution
The Government of Suriname will publish a national AI governance roadmap or policy framework following its UNESCO RAM 2.0 assessment.
Pending resolution
The European Commission will move to formalise a trust scheme for providers of privacy-preserving age verification tools linked to DSA child protection duties and the EU Digital Identity Wallet framework.
Pending resolution
EU institutions will advance binding KIDS Act rules on age assurance and safety-by-design duties for social media, games, app stores and AI chatbots used by minors.
Pending resolution
The Australian Government will move to give the ACCC an expanded role in monitoring generative AI and other emerging digital technologies under digital platform competition reforms.
Pending resolution
ASIC will finalise amendments to the market integrity rules tightening controls and technology risk management expectations for trading systems and automated trading.
Pending resolution
The ICO will publish updated guidance on AI and data protection to reflect the Data (Use and Access) Act.
Pending resolution
NIST will publish final guidance on best practices for automated benchmark evaluations of language models and AI agent systems.
Pending resolution
eSafety and the OAIC will take coordinated regulatory action, or issue joint guidance, on privacy compliance for mandatory age assurance and Social Media Minimum Age obligations.
Pending resolution
The ACCC will take compliance or enforcement action involving AI-enabled consumer practices, such as automated pricing, dark patterns, scam tools or misleading digital claims, under its 2026-27 priorities.
Pending resolution
ACCC will take enforcement action or issue targeted compliance guidance on consumer-facing digital markets, with likely focus on misleading claims, scams, subscriptions, unfair contract terms or pricing practices.
Pending resolution
The Digital Transformation Agency will issue a final AI assurance framework or equivalent formal guidance for Australian Government agencies using AI.
Pending resolution
The Australian Government will advance formal digital platform reform proposals, including an unfair trading practices prohibition and an ongoing role for digital platform regulators to monitor generative AI, cloud and related technologies.
Pending resolution
The European Commission will publish follow-up guidance or implementation measures for sector-specific AI deployment support, including regulatory sandboxes or data access arrangements under the Apply AI Strategy.
Pending resolution
NIST will publish revised or more formal AI standards drafts on public-facing AI documentation and AI testing, evaluation, verification and validation following the Zero Drafts pilot comments.
Pending resolution
ASIC will finalise updates to INFO 225 on when crypto and digital assets are financial products and how licensing obligations apply.
Pending resolution
The Australian Government will move toward legislation or a formal consultation on a digital competition regime for major platforms, with the ACCC positioned for a central enforcement role.
Pending resolution
NIST will finalise voluntary guidance on automated benchmark evaluations of language models and AI agent systems.
Pending resolution
The Australian Government will publish further proposed regulatory settings or guidance on responsible AI adoption and AI risk management.
Pending resolution
ASIC will amend Australia’s market integrity rules to impose updated controls for automated and algorithmic trading, including requirements for development, testing, monitoring and kill switches for aberrant activity.
Pending resolution
NIST will publish a draft or final AI RMF profile giving specific guidance on trustworthy AI use in critical infrastructure, including IT, OT and industrial control systems.
Pending resolution
The EU legislators will advance or adopt a Digital Omnibus regulation simplifying obligations under the GDPR, ePrivacy Directive, Data Act, NIS2 and related digital laws.
Pending resolution
NIST will finalise revisions to IR 8011 Volume 1 on methodology for identifying SP 800-53 controls suitable for automated testing and continuous monitoring.
Pending resolution
The European Commission will propose a legal basis for EU regulators to share enforcement-related information, including confidential material, with data protection authorities.
Pending resolution
The Australian Government will move to formalise a Digital Duty of Care under the Online Safety Act, with proactive risk assessment, mitigation and transparency obligations for online services, including services using AI recommendation systems, generative AI and bots.
Pending resolution
eSafety will take formal compliance action against at least one AI companion or chatbot service under the Age-Restricted Material Codes over child safety risks.
Pending resolution
eSafety will take formal compliance action or issue targeted guidance on safeguards for AI services that can generate sexualised or child exploitative imagery, with X's Grok a likely focus.
Pending resolution
NIST will publish a more settled draft or final Cybersecurity Framework Profile for Artificial Intelligence, giving organisations a reference model for mapping AI cybersecurity controls to CSF 2.0.
Pending resolution
The European Commission will finalise guidance on Article 50 transparency obligations for certain AI systems, including labelling and marking of AI-generated content.
Pending resolution
NIST NCCoE will develop formal guidance or a practice guide on identity, authorisation, auditability and related security controls for software and AI agents.
Pending resolution
NIST will issue or develop formal guidance, standards, or best-practice materials addressing security considerations for AI agents.
Pending resolution
NIST will publish draft standards, guidance, or reference materials for trusted, interoperable and secure autonomous AI agents, including agent identity, authentication and security evaluation practices.
Pending resolution
NIST will finalise or publish an updated Cyber AI Profile applying the Cybersecurity Framework 2.0 to AI-related cybersecurity risks.
Pending resolution
NIST CAISI will issue voluntary guidelines or best practices on security risks and mitigations for AI agent systems.
Pending resolution
ISO will develop or update AI standards or guidance to address consumer protection risks such as privacy, bias, autonomy, inclusion and misinformation safeguards.
Pending resolution
NIST will finalise its draft guidance on managing misuse risks for dual-use foundation models.
Pending resolution
NIST will revise the AI RMF Playbook after updating AI RMF 1.0
Pending resolution
NIST will finalise or update formal guidance on identifying and managing bias in artificial intelligence systems following stakeholder comments on draft Special Publication 1270.
Pending resolution
The EU will adopt or materially advance amendments to the AI Act simplifying implementation, adjusting high-risk AI timelines, clarifying AI literacy obligations, expanding sandboxes, and permitting safeguarded special-category data processing for bias detection and correction.
Pending resolution
NIST will publish a Critical Infrastructure profile or similar implementation guidance under the AI Risk Management Framework.
Pending resolution
OMB will issue implementation guidance for federal agency procurement of large language models under Executive Order 14319, including requirements tied to truth-seeking and ideological neutrality principles.
Pending resolution
NIST will publish further formal AI standards guidance or draft standards aligning the AI RMF with international AI governance and assurance standards
Pending resolution
NIST will finalise AI 800-1 guidance on managing deliberate misuse risks for dual-use foundation models, including CBRN, cyber, deception, CSAM and non-consensual intimate imagery risks.
Pending resolution
NIST will advance further formal AI standards or guidance work on priority areas including AI risk management, TEVV, synthetic content transparency, security, privacy, incident response, and training-data practices.
Pending resolution
The Australian Government will progress formal responsible AI regulatory settings or guidance to manage AI-related harms following the National AI Plan 2025.
Pending resolution
NIST will publish or coordinate further AI standards-related guidance on AI risk management, testing and evaluation, transparency, security, incident response, or training-data practices under the U.S. global engagement plan for AI standards.
Pending resolution
The Australian Government will consult on or introduce further formal AI safety or responsible AI regulatory settings for Australian organisations.
Pending resolution
The Australian Government will release further formal proposals or guidance on responsible AI adoption and harm mitigation as part of its National AI Plan implementation.
Pending resolution
NIST's U.S. AI Safety Institute will issue final or updated formal guidance on identifying, measuring, managing and governing misuse risks for dual-use foundation models, including CBRN, cyber, deception, CSAM and non-consensual imagery risks.
Pending resolution